Friday, May 24, 2013

Monsters University Predictions



With less than a month until Monsters University is released, this is the perfect time to make some predictions. I will be predicting the film’s length, budget, box office take in, rating and Rotten Tomatoes percentage.

How Long will Monsters University be?

It would be pointless to predict how long films like Iron Man 3 would be since those kinds of films are always at least 2 hours long. Pixar films, however, vary from different lengths, making predicting their run times all the more fun.

Animated films are usually easy to predict since they’re only around 90-100 minutes long, but even though Pixar has films that are that long, they also have films that are almost 2 hours long. This makes the Pixar films much more difficult to predict.

Last year, Pixar screened the first 30 minutes of Brave. This year, Pixar did the same thing and screened the first 40 minutes of Monsters University. The longer preview screening length might mean that Monsters University will be a longer film. Even though Brave ended up being one of Pixar’s shortest films, you might think that showing only 10 extra minutes of Monsters University than what they showed for Brave is no big deal either and that it doesn’t mean that it would be Pixar’s longest film, but 10 minutes can make a big difference. If the first act is 40 minutes long, that’s almost 1 whole hour you have there just for setting up the film.

Also, Monsters University used up the most storyboards out of all of the Pixar films, adding up to exactly 100,856 storyboards. This could possibly mean that it will beat the runtime of Cars and become Pixar’s longest film to date!

Cars had a runtime of 1 hour and 56 minutes, making it Pixar’s longest film, so if Monsters University does end up becoming Pixar’s longest film, it will most likely reach 2 hours. It would actually be pretty funny if Monsters University ends up being Pixar’s longest film because Monsters Inc. was only 1 hour and 32 minutes long, making it Pixar’s shortest film.

Monsters University will definitely reach 100 minutes, but there is also a possibility of it hitting the 2 hour mark, or at least somewhere close to the 2 hour mark. The film doesn’t look like it’s meant to be a film that is epic in scope, but making it 2 hours long could make sense.

How Much will Monsters University Cost to Make?

Pixar films usually cost a lot to make. They didn’t even mention how much Brave cost to make, which was weird, but I have a feeling that was because it cost so much that they didn’t want to talk about it. This would make sense because that film went through a lot of production.  It was in production for around 7 years. When a film goes through that much time in production, that most likely means that they spend more money on making the film since the filmmakers would spend more money over time.

Both Cars 2 and Toy Story 3 cost $200 million to make so I have a feeling that Monsters University will cost $200-250 million.

 How Much will Monsters University Make?

Pixar films always end up making lots of money in the box office. Monsters University will be no different.

The film has a pretty strong and unique marketing campaign. While they still release trailers and regular TV spots, they also make advertisements surrounding the university itself, mocking actual university advertisements. It is a very interesting way of marketing their film.

Also, the recent Monsters University trailer has be released before Iron Man 3, a film which people of all ages flock to see. People of all ages see Pixar films as well since they are films that everyone can enjoy. For this reason, releasing a trailer before Iron Man 3 will greatly affect how much Monsters University makes in the box office.

It was an excellent idea for Disney to buy Marvel. Their films are seen by everyone, making it a perfect opportunity to attach trailers of upcoming Disney films. Which makes me wonder: Why doesn’t Disney release trailers for the Disney Animation Studios films at a perfect time like this? It is a perfect opportunity to advertise films like their upcoming film, Frozen. You would think that marketing their animated films will be their top priority.

Another thing that will really help the film’s box office take in is the fact that it’s a prequel to Monsters Inc, one of Pixar’s most beloved and well known films. The people who saw Monsters Inc. in theaters (like me) are a lot older now and seem to be really excited for Monsters University.

However, there is a possibility that this film might not interest kids. It is a college film after all. They might prefer seeing the more kid-friendly and cutesy films that are released a few weeks later, such as Despicable Me 2 and The Smurfs 2.

I think that Monsters University will make Toy Story 3 numbers. Just like how Toy Story 3 appealed to the nostalgic college teens that grew up with the franchise, the same will go for Monsters University. Good word of mouth will also help the film.

Considering all this, on opening weekend, Monsters University will at least hit the $100-$110 million mark. Domestically, it might hit close to $400 million overall, maybe $390 million. Worldwide, it has a good chance on being the next animated film to reach $1 billion. If it doesn’t reach $1 billion, it will probably make at least $900 million, but $1 billion is still a good possibility.

What Percentage will Monsters University get on Rotten Tomatoes?

Pixar films usually end up being some of the best reviewed films each year. However, even though critic reviews and Rotten Tomatoes percentages do not measure the quality of the film, this is yet another fun thing to predict.

At first, I thought that this one will be really tricky to predict, but after seeing all the people raving about the film in early reviews, it’s easy to say that Monsters University will get as high a percentage on Rotten Tomatoes as the majority of Pixar’s films.

However, some critics might be biased against Cars 2 and Brave (films which did not deserve the bad reviews they got). They might be under the crazy “Pixar is dead” mindset and force themselves not to like the movie. This probably won’t happen, though.

If critics aren’t in that mindset and the reviews are as good as the early reviews, Monsters University will be with the majority of the other Pixar films in the 90% range.

What will Monsters University be Rated?

Considering how messed up the MPAA is, this is going to be very tricky to predict. While there are some Pixar films that deserved a PG rating such as Up and Brave (Brave hit the territory of a PG-13 film, but it’s not enough for it to actually deserve a PG-13 rating, so PG was a good choice), there are some films that deserved a PG rating that got away with a G rating such as Toy Story 3.

It’s really weird how the MPAA works. While they feel that kids can handle the intensity of Toy Story 3, some of the most harmless films get rated PG due to toilet humor and crude humor, such as The Lorax.

If that’s how the MPAA rates movies, wouldn’t the “Nice ascot” quote that Barbie said in Toy Story 3 give the film a PG rating? And how did Cars 2 get a G rating? Not only is there toilet humor in that film, but cars are also killed, blown up, tortured, etc. The same goes for Ratatouille. They show dead rats hanging from the ceiling by their tails in a store. How is that not PG material?!

It seems that the MPAA only gives the Pixar films PG ratings if they involve humans and blood. The Incredibles, Up and Brave both featured humans and had a bit of blood in them and those films were rated PG.

Anyways, considering that Monsters University is a college film, that probably means that there will be some partying. Also, based on what I’ve seen in the trailer, there might be some intense scenes in the film. I would think that the movie will be rated PG, but if it gets a G rating, I will not be surprised. It is the MPAA, after all. However, if there isn’t that much partying in the film (Pixar tends to focus more on the story than stuff like partying), then I can understand if the film is rated G.

 


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